The words ‘green shoots’ have become popular nowadays while discussing the Indian economy and it’s understood as a feel-good economic atmosphere in the making. Despite claims that there are green shoots, a set of economic data released by National Statistical Office (NSO), the vital arm of the government’s own MoSPI on Friday will tell otherwise. Not only has factory output decreased, there's now a rising inflation as a companion. Successive increase in fuel prices since the end of December last year that continued till a couple of weeks ago raised the fear that prices of essentials are bound to increase and the NSO figures have finally corroborated it. Still, there are narratives that make wide use of the terms ‘green shoots’, V-shaped recovery etc. which goes on and there will also be efforts to pass the buck to the pandemic’s continuing after-effects. The better days, meanwhile, which can be felt by the people not through any data, but by his daily economic experiences, seem quite distant.

From the NSO data officially termed as ‘Quick Estimates of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for January 2021 and Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2021’, it can be found that after striking growth in December, the country’s industrial production has again slipped into a negative zone in January 2021 to the tune of minus 1.6 % owing to lesser manufacturing and mining activities and capital goods output. The retail inflation data reflected through the CPI shows that prices of most essential food items is now at a 3-month high of 5.03 % in February from a previous 16-month low of 4.06 %. If for a quick understanding these essential food items are bracketed as ‘food basket’, the CPI shows there is a jump from 1.89 % in January to 3.87 % the following month and a major cause that can be attributed will undoubtedly be the hike in fuel prices that occurred in the same period. Figures on edible oils and fruits also point out how hard it had been hit by inflation. Not only food inflation, when it comes to core inflation that takes into account the non-food and non-fuel components, the graph has headed upwards from 5.7 % in January to 5.9 % in February. Even if it’s usually perceived that inflation is a temporary worry, fall in industrial production after a recovery is not a good sign since there remains a chance that the GDP which saw a 0.4 % positive growth in October-December quarter of 2020-21 FY may again slip into the negative zone in the last quarter.

The road to economic recovery will be more bumpy as thought and for the moment it’s better to admit that green shoots are still not visible.

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Kenter Joya Riba

(Managing Editor)
      She is a graduate in Science with post graduation in Sociology from University of Pune. She has been in the media industry for nearly a decade. Before turning to print business, she has been associated with radio and television.
Email: kenterjoyaz@easternsentinel.in / editoreasternsentinel@gmail.com
Phone: 0360-2212313

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