Likabali Bye-elections

 

Nani Bath

The epicentre of ‘political earth quake’, reportedly released by Takam Pario and his supporters, is in Itanagar, but its tremor is being felt as far as in 28-Likabali assembly constituency. The outcome of the current political manoeuvring is likely to have direct bearing on the bye-election’s result.

Till delimitation of assembly constituencies in 1990, Likabali was a part of 17-Basar constituency. Tomo Riba was elected twice in 1978 and 1980 on PPA ticket. He defeated Todak Basar, who was elected in 1984 as Congress candidate, in those two elections.

In 1990, after Likabali assembly constituency was created, Rima Taipodia was elected on Janata Dal ticket. In the subsequent election in 1995, Rima Taipodia was defeated by Kardu Taipodia, a Congress nominee. Rima Taipodia was elected again in 1999. Jomde Kena, who was elected thrice: 2004, 2009 and 2014, represented the constituency till his death. 

Kardo Nyigyor is the BJP nominee in the bye-election to the 28- Likabali assembly constituency, which has been scheduled to be held on 21^st December 2017. He is believed to have been blessed by the family of late Jomde Kena, former cabinet minister (Health and Family Welfare). This bye-election was necessitated because of Jomde’s untimely demise. 

In a surprise move, the PPA announced the candidature of Gumke Riba, a State BJP Executive Member, who till the other day was hopeful of getting BJP’s ticket. There seems to be no dispute to a fact that he was the man who is squarely responsible for making the party (BJP) - “what it is today” in Likabali constituency- from scratch to the best performing Mandal in the state.

A Reverend of Christian Baptist denomination, Modam Dini, stands as the candidate of Indian National Congress. Sengo Taipodia, who became very popular in the movement for Lower Siang district, is contesting as an independent candidate.

Tapak Nguso (Lendo), considered a close confidant of Kiren Rijiju, who has been associated with the BJP since 2004, was one of the aspirants for ruling party ticket. Tapak basically hails from Chisi village of Basar assembly constituency. He has the experience of serving as the district president (West Siang), as secretary state unit BJP, and is presently national executive member (ST Morcha).

Tapak Nguso’s candidature was not recommended by the Likabali Mandal because “being a non domicile of 28- Likabali assembly constituency, he is yet to understand the political dynamics and lacks in acquaintance/experience with the local public of the area. Candidature of a non domicile will adversely affect public sentiments as well as ruin the morale of our party cadres”.

The recommendation of the president BJP 28^th Likabali Mandal was unambiguous, that “Sri Gumke Riba commands immense favour, sympathy and popular support across all sections of the society”. He adds, “.....also has every chance of being elected unopposed if he is awarded the ruling party ticket as he commands huge support and sympathy cutting across party affiliations”.

Congress candidate, Modam Dini, is a popular spiritual leader. He may be trying to capitalise on being a religious head but it may not be easy to garner support on religious lines in a clan-oriented society. Tribal communities, irrespective of religious colours, are deeply rooted to their families, clans and lineages.

Still, we could not rule out ‘political unity’ on the basis of religious affiliations. There are some orthodox religious individuals/families who consider certain activities of sangh parivar as anti-Christians. A Christian believer points out, “BJP has ambulance for cows in Uttar Pradesh but no ambulance for humans in Arunachal Pradesh”.

I was a bit disturbed by a revelation of one of my colleagues that “Christians are praying hard to get honest people elected for the good of the society”. Modam may try project his image in this line of thinking.

Many believe that Sengo Taipodia’s candidature was prompted by a possibility that Tapak Nguso had a better chance to be given BJP ticket. Being a non-domicile and having connection only in Gensi circle, Tapak would not be able to have any influence in the foothills areas. Sengo Taipodia is from Likabali circle which accounts for around 50 per cent of total electorates.

There are 10,608 voters in total. Gensi and Sibe circles have voters close to 3,500. Foothills areas (Likabali and Kangku circles) have voters slightly more than 7,000.

Kangku circle comprises of 24 villages. It was in news recently because of the villagers demand for “No Road: No Vote”. Their grouse against their representative is that they become ‘minority in their own land’ owing to absence of road communication. Even if Assamese villagers encroach upon their land or exploit natural resources, they are unable to raise their voices since they cannot go out without touching Assam.

Jomde Kena, who hails from Gensi, represented this constituency for almost 15 years. One voter says that Jomde was least interested in the development of foothills, not being a native of the areas. However, there are some who consider him as a ‘pragmatic’ man, who knew the arithmetic of electoral politics and behaviour of voters more than anyone else. He knew that at the end of the day it was finances that would matter.

There are apprehensions that perpetual policy of “underdevelopment of foothills” adopted by Jomde Kena may continue if Kardo Nyigyor, once his close associate, gets elected. Gumke Riba, the PPA candidate, is reaping the maximum benefits out of this debate of insider versus outsider.

How did Kardo Nyigyor get BJP nomination if his name was not recommended by the Likabali Mandal? This is a politically significant question to which everyone is looking for right answer.

There are rumours doing round about exchange of money in lieu of BJP ticket. This may be exactly true or precisely false propaganda being spread by opponent camps. BJP candidate is said have filed defamation suit against a police officer for spreading politically damaging rumours.

Gumke Riba is a senior community leader besides being an old timer in BJP before his resignation. If he is elected on BJP ticket, he throws a direct challenge to leaders like Gojen Gadi (MLA Basar) in terms of seniority in the party and district. So, “is it not possible that Gojen spoke against Gumke’s candidature to the chief minister with a threat to withdraw his support?” asked an insider of PPA camp. 

His assessment looks quite logical given the political situation in the state today. Kiren Rijiju too, in his facebook message to his supporters, indicated that Gumke Riba did not get BJP because of the prevailing political situation.  My sources have confirmed that Takam Pario is inviting ‘new BJP’ legislators to his camp with promise of confirmed Congress or PPA ticket in 2019 general elections.

BJP is considered to be a cadre-based party. As such, many of the incumbent BJP MLAs may be sidelined in favour of senior party members. Certainly, young leaders like Nyamar Karbak (MLA Liromoba), a new entrant in the BJP, may like to put all his might to dismantle cadre-based system in the BJP in Arunachal Pradesh.

“They did succeed”, a senior BJP leader says, when two-month-old BJP member, Kardo Nyigyor, was given BJP ticket. While some others maintain that party ticket given to him was just the fulfilment of promises of the chief minister and the party president to the family of late Jomde Kena.

There could be three politically significant remarks in relations to just concluding Likabali bye-elections. One, 2019 general election is going to be a repetition of this bye-elections. Secondly, ‘GR’ (Gumke Riba) and Kiren Rijiju are the parts of collateral damages unleashed by power struggle going on presently in the state. Supporters of Gumke Riba are pointing their fingers at Kiren Rijiju, the BJP MP, for his inability to protect his ‘all-weather’ supporters.

Lastly, it is the success of power politics at the cost of the party’s ideology and discipline. Eventually, indigenous movement in the state is going to be the first casualty basically because BJP old timers are mostly those who are associated with various indigenous religious groups.

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Kenter Joya Riba

(Managing Editor)
      She is a graduate in Science with post graduation in Sociology from University of Pune. She has been in the media industry for nearly a decade. Before turning to print business, she has been associated with radio and television.
Email: kenterjoyaz@easternsentinel.in / editoreasternsentinel@gmail.com
Phone: 0360-2212313

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